El SALVADOR LEFT FAVORED TO WIN IN 2004.

With exactly one year left in his presidency, Salvadoran President Francisco Flores is suffering the lowest approval ratings since February 2000. His party, the Alianza Republicana Nacionalista (ARENA), has just undergone a major overhaul of its leadership after being handed a humiliating defeat in recent local and legislative elections (see NotiCen, 2003-03-20, 2003-04-04).

With all this going for it, the opposition Faribundo Marti para la Liberacion Nacional (FMLN) might have regarded the upcoming presidential election as theirs to lose. Their first choice, it seems, was to lose. Against the preferences of their midlevel officials, and probably of the base as well, the FMLN leadership has chosen Jorge Schafik Handal as their candidate. Schafik Handal was leader of the Partido Comunista de El Salvador (PCS) until it integrated into the FMLN in 1980.

A recent poll showed Schafik Handal to be the respondents' fourth choice to be the party's standard-bearer. First choice among those polled was Mauricio Funes, who, if the election were held during the poll period, would have beaten an ARENA candidate by a margin of 17%. The poll was conducted between April 26 and May 9.

The relative advantage may be different today, however, because, at the time of the survey, ARENA had not yet picked its candidate. Since then, it has selected ex-President Armando Calderon Sol (1994-2000).

Funes is a popular television journalist. He directs the programs Hechos and Entrevista al Dia on Channel 12. Several FMLN officials opposed to Schafik Handal proposed his candidacy. Several FMLN deputies and mayors met with Funes in an effort to inspire him to contest the nomination. Among them was Orlando Mena, mayor of Santa Ana, who told the press following the meeting, "We've asked him to join the party and participate on the ticket with Oscar Ortiz." Funes had indicated that he would think about it.

He doesn't have very long to think, however. Funes was not, at the time of the meeting, a member of the FMLN, and, according to the Comision Politica, he had to become a member before June 6 for his candidacy to be legal. He would then be able to consider his options until June 27, the legal cutoff date for declaring candidacy.

Funes did not deny any of this to reporters. Aware of his overwhelming popularity in polls, he was still reluctant to criticize the party's handling of the nomination process.

"I'm respectful of the internal processes of selection of candidates that...

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