Nicaragua: rosy growth numbers an added boost for President Daniel Ortega as election nears.
| Autor | Witte-Lehbar, Benjamin |
A recent economic upswing in Nicaragua could not have come at a better time for President Daniel Ortega, who is quickly closing in on an unprecedented--and arguably unconstitutional--third term in office. Nicaragua's upcoming general election is set to take place Nov. 6.
With less than two months to go, Ortega, the long-standing leader of the Frente Sandinista de Liberacion Nacional (FSLN), has a healthy poll lead over his closest rival, 79-year-old Fabio Gadea Mantilla of the Partido Liberal Independiente (PLI). Ortega, a key figure in the 1979 Sandinista revolution, first held the presidency from 1985-1990. After several failed bids, he won a second term in 2006 (NotiCen, Nov. 9, 2006).
Ortega owes much of his recent success to infighting among his opponents (NotiCen, March 24 2011). As it did in 2006, the fractured opposition plans to run several candidates--including ex-President Arnoldo Aleman (1997-2002) of the Partido Liberal Constitucionalista (PLC)--and is thus likely to split the conservative voting block to Ortega's advantage.
Yet, unlike 2006, when Ortega eked out a 38% victory only because opponents Eduardo Montealegre and Jose Rizo divided what would have been a 55% vote haul between them, the FSLN leader looks poised to win this election regardless. A CID-Gallup poll published Sept. 30 put support for the president at 45.8%. Even if their support were combined, Gadea (33.5%) and Aleman (10.1%) would only garner 43.6% of the vote, the survey found.
In the past few years, Ortega appears to have improved his political standing with voters--despite claims from opponents that his candidacy is illegal. Nicaragua's Constitution prohibits leaders from serving back-to-back terms and limits at two the total number of times someone can hold the top office.
To what then does the controversial incumbent owe his increasing popular support? Nicaragua's relatively rosy economic numbers may not be the sole explanation, but they have no doubt helped. If nothing else, the improved economic figures neutralize one of the political right's standard lines of attack: that leftist leaders--particularly one with Ortega's revolutionary credentials--are bad for the economy.
Flood of foreign investment
A victim of the global financial crisis, the Nicaraguan economy slumped in 2009 (NotiCen, Jan. 7, 2010). In 2010, however, GDP growth rebounded--to the tune of 4.5%. So far this year the trend has continued. Exports are up. Coffee sales alone have...
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