BRAZIL: CHOOSING PRESIDENT LULA'S SUCCESSOR EXCITES PARTIES, THE MEDIA, AND SOCIETY.
By Jose Pedro Martins
With the election to choose President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva's successor still a year away, pre-election controversy is already heating up and causing behind-the-scenes maneuvering in political parties, the media, and Brazilian society. The key question to be answered when all the votes are counted a year from now is whether President Lula, at the peak of his popularity, is able to choose his successor.
The most recent presidential voter-preference poll, released Nov. 23, 2009, confirms a tendency detected earlier by political analysts. The Confederacao Nacional do Transporte (CNT)/Instituto Sensus poll shows increased support for Lula's Chief of Staff Dilma Rousseff of the Partido dos Trabalhadores (PT), while support for early favorite Sao Paulo Gov. Jose Serra, of the Partido da Social Democracia Brasileira (PSDB), has fallen sharply.
Serra's voter-preference rating stood at 31.8%, compared with 39.5% in the previous poll in September and between 40% and 45% support a year ago. Rousseff received 21.7% in the recent poll, up from 19% in September.
One factor contributing to Serra's declining numbers has been the emergence of another presidential candidate, Deputy Ciro Gomes of the Partido Socialista Brasileiro (PSB), which supports Lula. In the CNT/Sensus poll, Gomes received 17.5%, "stealing" some of Serra's support.
Another factor has been the strong public rejection of one of Serra's principal allies, former two-term President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (1995-2003). Cardoso has a 49.3% disapproval level--the percentage of respondents who expressly said they would not vote for a candidate backed by the former president. Only 16% of respondents said they would not vote for a candidate supported by Lula, in this case, Rousseff.
Candidates compete to be "green"
Other potential candidates received significantly less support in the CNT/Sensus poll. Former environmental minister in the Lula administration and now Sen. Marina Silva, of the Partido Verde (PV), received 5.9% support. The "Marina Silva factor," which could take votes from Rousseff since Silva has a political history with the PT and much support within various segments of the left, has led strategists in the Rousseff campaign to adjust their tactics.
Silva is a major figure in Brazilian environmentalism; she left the Ministerio do Meio Ambiente and the PT because she disagreed with governmental policies regarding the Amazon. Sen. Silva, who later joined the...
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